The Chainlink

The 2013 Chicago Bike Theft Year in Review

So it looks like there are still bike thieves in the City of Chicago and that bike owners are still determined to make it easy for them. We had a modest increase (5%) in reports to the Chicago Stolen Bike Registry in 2013 after a whopping 42% increase from 2011 to 2012. The spreadsheet for the period of 2010 through 2013 is attached, but the numbers that stick out for me:

59% of thefts reported to the CSBR last year were of bikes which either weren’t locked (26.5%) or were locked with only some form of cable lock (32.6%).

Another 27.6% of reports to the CSBR were of bikes with a locking method identified as “Other.” The “Other” category has been a topic of discussion in past threads because this is sometimes an option selected by the victim and sometimes an option selected by the CSBR admins. Victims are asked to select "Other" when no lock was cut or broken to steal the bike, and admittedly, this fact is sometimes difficult to ascertain with any degree of certainty. The admin protocol is to make the change when the narrative makes it clear that a lock wasn't defeated to steal the bike. "Other" includes by way of example, bikes which were only locked to themselves (regardless of lock type); bikes which are locked only through the front wheel (regardless of lock type) and the bike is stolen by leaving the wheel locked to the rack and taking the rest; bikes which were locked (regardless of lock type) to a sucker pole, wooden or iron fence, and the object which it was locked to was obviously broken or defeated.

Only 4.4% of reports to the CSBR were of bikes locked to a bike rack with a newer U-Lock. It’s that easy to minimize your risk of being a theft victim.

Register your bike. Write down your serial number. Take a picture of your bike. Don’t lock your bike and leave it in a common area that other people can access. Don’t lock your bike with some form of cable lock as your only security device. Don’t lock your bike to a fence or a sucker pole. Don’t leave your unlocked bike in front of a store, on your back porch, in a garage or in a yard. Bike thieves can and do climb fences and stairs.

CSBR%202010-2013%20FINAL%201%2027%2014.pdf

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Permalink Reply by Josh L. on January 27, 2014 at 10:43pm

Thanks Kevin.  Two comments:

1)  "Only 4.4% of reports to the CSBR were of bikes locked to a bike rack with a newer U-Lock." This substantiates  my point that you don't need to drive around with two u locks to enjoy Chicago by bike. Yes, cables or other mechanisms can be used on wheels or seats.

2) FWIW, I biked to work at the merchandise mart ONE DAY last year with with a cable lock.  It was the coldest day all winter (per my recollection). My bike got stolen.  I see snapped cable locks routinely in the Loop area. My profound conclusion is that bike thieves are systematically going through the Loop area looking for nice bikes locked by cable. 

That is all.

Permalink Reply by Christine (5.0) on January 28, 2014 at 4:19pm

Only 4.4% of reports to the CSBR were of bikes locked to a bike rack with a newer U-Lock.


Were the value of those bikes above average/substantially above average, or just random?

Permalink Reply by dan brown on January 28, 2014 at 4:52pm

thaks kevin...I love all the statisical analyses here...yes I am a geek

Permalink Reply by Kevin C Dormant on January 28, 2014 at 5:12pm

It's pretty random.

I had certain expectations about locks, locking technique, and locking location before I started fielding CSBR reports. Most of those expectations were wrong. Certain truisms about no one stealing beaters, or Dutch bikes, or cargo bikes have gone out the window for me. While I believe it is true that there are a handful of very skilled thieves operating in the City of Chicago who, if they really want to steal your bike, there's little you can do to prevent it, more than 85% of the theft reports to the CSBR are of bikes which weren't locked or were poorly locked (lock type, method and/or location).

The reports to the CSBR are a subset of the total number of thefts in Chicago. Whether the real theft number is 5x, 10x, or 15x our number of reports, I assume our statistics are fairly representative of the gross number of thefts. (If anything, I would expect our numbers would represent a slightly more sophisticated population because the submission came from a person or at the behest of a person who is knowledgeable enough about bike theft to know that the CSBR exists.)

As a result, I don't think theft prevention strategy should be based solely on the value of your bike. I think the overwhelming consideration should be how much you value having your bike where you locked it when you return. 

Our unlocked or cable locked bike theft reports range from department store mountain bikes to carbon fiber bikes worth thousands of dollars. A common thread is that we don't get a lot of reports of bike thefts involving a decent lock locked properly (usually <10%, but in 2013, <5%).

Christine (5.0) said:

Only 4.4% of reports to the CSBR were of bikes locked to a bike rack with a newer U-Lock.


Were the value of those bikes above average/substantially above average, or just random?

Permalink Reply by Duppie on January 28, 2014 at 5:56pm

Kevin, How do you treat bicycles stored unlocked in a basement? Are they the same as garages? Or are they accounted for in a different category?

Permalink Reply by Kevin C Dormant on January 28, 2014 at 6:53pm

The CSBR Theft Report forced fields for "Which type of area was your bike stolen from?"  are:

Front of Building in residential area.

Sidewalk in front of a closed business.

Sidewalk in front of an open business.

Porch or yard.

Alley or side passageway.

Storage room.

Garage or enclosed parking area.

Bike was in a locked apartment or residence.

Other situation, please describe below.

The reports you see on the CSBR are victim-generated. Any changes the administrators make to the report are made only* after email or telephone contact with the victim. *The only exception is that we change the lock type to "other" when it is clear from the narrative that no lock was cut, broken or defeated in effecting the theft.

Fortunately, fewer than 10 (and possibly fewer than 5) thefts per year involve a thief who gained access to the victim's residence. The vast majority of our basement thefts are described in the narrative as a "basement storage room." So there really hasn't been a need to add a field for "basement."

Duppie said:

Kevin, How do you treat bicycles stored unlocked in a basement? Are they the same as garages? Or are they accounted for in a different category?

Permalink Reply by El Dorado on January 28, 2014 at 10:22pm

Are there any bike thefts that involve two locks? I would think a NYC U-lock and bike registry chain or Abus chain make it hard to steal? But, of course, this is the bike theft capital of the country so who knows.

Permalink Reply by Kevin C Dormant on January 28, 2014 at 10:39pm

It may interest you to know that the source for your erroneous factoid is Kryptonite. Kryptonite used to do an annual list of the top ten worst cities in the US for bike theft. (The underlying Kryptonite data is proprietary, but the worst cities are based on rate of theft rather than gross numbers, and reading between the lines, relates to claims on the Kryptonite replacement guarantee.) New York was always #1 followed by everyone else. By the time they stopped this "poll" in 2009, NY settled at #3, with Philadelphia at #1 and Chicago at #2. I spoke with the brand manager at Kryptonite a couple of times in 2010 seeking insight into how Chicago could use the lessons learned in NY to reduce theft in Chicago. Was it the fact that New York got a Kryptonite lock named after them? Nah, it was awareness, pure and simple. The publicity associated with being the worst city in the US for bike theft made people in New York more aware of how and where they locked their bike.

There are 4847 theft reports listed on the current Chicago Stolen Bike Registry. In 2011, there were 2 (possibly 3) stolen bike reports in which the victim reported that the bike had been locked with 2 u-locks. Those account for between .04-.06% of the total CSBR reports.



El Dorado said:

Are there any bike thefts that involve two locks? I would think a NYC U-lock and bike registry chain or Abus chain make it hard to steal? But, of course, this is the bike theft capital of the country so who knows.

Permalink Reply by Josh L. on January 29, 2014 at 6:16am


I guess it makes it harder but it seems to me that anyone that is using an angle cutter probably would be willing to cut to of them. Despite what the alarmists state, as Kevin's analysis and the data  makes clear, there are (except very rarely) few guys walking around Chicago with angle cutters.  A single U-lock - unless you have a very nice bike - will protect your bike (not necessarily parts) 99% of the time.  
El Dorado said:

Are there any bike thefts that involve two locks? I would think a NYC U-lock and bike registry chain or Abus chain make it hard to steal? But, of course, this is the bike theft capital of the country so who knows.

Permalink Reply by ad on January 29, 2014 at 9:00am

I think it's also worth keeping in mind where your bicycle will be locked up and for how long when settling on a strategy.  

I've locked my bike up all over the city and got away with using a single ulock and security cable for the wheels without a problem, likely because my bicycle was never unattended for more than a few hours and was never consistently locked day-after-day in the same spot. Meanwhile, a few years back, my wife started riding her bike to union station in order to reverse commute by metra to an internship in the northern suburbs, and someone steals the bike using an angle grinder to defeat a kryptonite ulock four days after she started the routine.  

Maybe she was just unlucky, but if I locked on a daily basis in that area, I'd probably use two ulocks going forward after her experience.  

Of course, I suffered my first bicycle theft this past September--when I stupidly left my bicycle unlocked in my fenced-in backyard for 20 minutes after a ride :(   

Permalink Reply by Ryan Stahlman on January 29, 2014 at 9:11am

Are there any accounts in the registry of bikes reported stolen from storage unit facilities? Like those indoor types used to store anything and protected with security cameras? 

Permalink Reply by Kevin C Dormant on January 29, 2014 at 9:15am

I don't think so. I've never seen one.

Ryan Stahlman said:

Are there any accounts in the registry of bikes reported stolen from storage unit facilities? Like those indoor types used to store anything and protected with security cameras? 

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