The Chainlink

Statistics on recent Bike Thefts and my personal recommendations on how to minimize them

I just examined 201 of the July bike thefts on the Chicago Stolen Bike Registry website (http://chicago.stolenbike.org/) because a recent breakdown of the thefts did not discuss the 39% of bikes that were outside of the "not locked" or "poorly locked" categories - I was curious about those too.

I totaled the different categories of theft and came up with these:

Not locked at all or locked to itself only or left unlocked in a garage or porch that got broken into = 38%
Locked with a combination lock and chain = 18%
Padlocked with a chain - 8%
Locked with an integrated lock in a chain = 6%
(the last three use chains that are easily cut and constitute 32%)
Flat Key U-Locks
To a street sign that got lifted or fence that got broken = 19%
Front Wheel only locked - so rest of bike was stolen = 2%
Using older U-Locks = 2%
Bike was disassembled around U-Lock = 1%
U-Lock itself was broken = 6% (presumably using tools like hacksaws, or bent open with force, or chiseled into) (note: 6% is still a small percentage)
From these statistics I conclude:
- Never ever fail to lock your bike and never lock it to itself.
- Never use chains (unless you are parking within eye sight, say outside a coffee bar you are sitting at).
- Don't lock your bike outdoors on the streets for more than a short period of time (minutes) if you are only using 1 lock.
- It is better to keep the bike in your apartment, condo or house than in a car garage that may be broken into unless it is a building garage explicit for bikes in which residents require special building-provided keys, pay for their parking spot, and in which security may provide some monitoring of people entering the building..  The risk that another resident will steal your bike still exists of course, but that remains relatively small (and if you are worried about that, take it into the home and don't pay for the bike garage).

- If locking outside on the streets for hours, use a bike rack instead of a fence, gate or street sign, and use preferably two U-Locks, in particular the hard-core ones like the Kryptonite Fahgettaboudit or others in that family, whatever the brand.  If one is keeping the bike outside for several hours, attach the front wheel and the frame to a bike rack with a solid duty flat-key U-Lock AND an additional smaller but heavy-duty U-Lock to attach the frame again to the bike rack - that will give the thieves more work than they may want to put into the job (remember, they don't like to work as hard as the rest of us).  Small O-Locks may be used for an additional and impressive secondary or tertiary level of security.  The advantage of an O-Lock, while small, is it is built to resist leveraging, sawing, chiseling or hammering - perfect to attach to a back wheel.

This is all common advice but the statistics seem to support it.

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Permalink Reply by Josh L. on August 7, 2013 at 6:22am

Thank you "h".  I would hate to think that chainlink readers take away from this analysis that their u locked bike is constantly under threat of being stole. I have found one of the best uses of my bike - which has replaced my car btw - is to use it to quickly stop at stores, restaurants, what have you.  A good ulock is great for a quick run in and anything more than that I cable the wheel too.  People shouldn't think that they are putting their bike at risk everytime they go out.  U locks are an excellent deterrent.

h' 1.0 said:

We read/review every single report as it comes in, and do work to weed out the reports that erroneously select "U-lock" (generally if you see "other" for a lock type, it means we changed it from "newer U-lock with flat key" after some attempt to decipher what occurred, including contacting the victims for clarification.) But we probably do miss some now and then.

I think we get into the territory that someone alluded to early in the thread, of our sample being self-selecting and potentially being better informed/better connected than the general bike-losing population, and thus more likely to have known to use a U-lock, and/or victims of theft of more valuable bikes being more likely to report them, and for various reasons having been more likely to have used a U-lock. Or a variety of other factors that may prevent you from having stats that are representative of the general population.

I definitely agree that a much smaller percentage of bikes that are stolen each day in Chicago (than 16%) are stolen by defeating a U-lock.... my guess would be 3-5%.   I have used two U-locks for at least 5 years now, but I strongly feel that the vast majority of thefts in Chicago would not have occurred if the bike had been locked to something relatively unbreakable with one decent U-lock.  Apologies if the statistics being posted here suggest otherwise.

jolondon30 said:

I wonder how much of this is due to bikes improperly locked...for example to the wheel and not to the frame.  I have a very hard time believing that 16% of bike thefts are due to u locks being cut...people may be bullshitting and claiming they secured it more than they did or locked up poorly.

)(I have no evidence to back up my assertion!:


Kevin C said:

There are 3251 reports on the Chicago Stolen Bike Registry for the period between January 1, 2010 and August 6, 2013. Of those reports, 539 were identified as being locked with a newer u-lock w/flat key. That's 16.58%. For that same period, there were 2, (possibly 3) reported thefts of bikes which were secured with two u-locks. If you lock your bike with a decent u-lock, to a bike rack, and can avoid leaving it locked up overnight, your odds are still pretty good of keeping your bike for many years to come.

I'm at 28, going on 29 years without having a bike stolen in the City of Chicago.

SlowCoachOnTheRoad said:

I hope I made it clear that the thefts from even one U-Lock are very low (I emphasized that 6% is still a very low number).  I was just trying to address ways of reducing even those numbers by adding another lock or two (like your proposal for a U-Lock/chain combo).  But you are right, the chances of not getting a bike stolen simply with the U-Lock, so long as it is to a bike rack and not a pole or fence (where you'd be part of the 19%) is still huge.


Permalink Reply by SlowCoachOnTheRoad on August 7, 2013 at 7:50am

I think we simply have to make it clear to people that thieves are out there and they should be mindful of that, but I would bet as well (something not captured by my data) that there are less thefts among us transportation bikers than among the casual, rarer, take the bike out in the summer, types.  We are simply more attached to our bikes so our behaviors are likely to reflect that (I am not saying none of us have had our bikes stolen, only less of us).  This would not be excessive paranoia but what we call "healthy paranoia," the kind that keeps us safe.  We must take care and with the right precautions greatly minimize thefts.  I personally carry a large U-Lock and a medium one on my bike, and even a cable that can be easily cut.  If I am stopping outside a movie theater for example, or even taking a half hour trip to a Target, I will use the big U-Lock for the frame and front wheel, and then the medium U-Lock for another attachment of frame to rack.  I may even wind my cable through my SpongyWonder seat to the bike frame since I don't want that nabbed either (and it is easy to loosen a bike seat - I know some of you even take that seat with you).  Each of these would be possible to break into by a professional thief, but I am assuming with all that protection the deterrence is greater.  So while this may seem a bit excessive to the average biker chaining his or her bike next to mine, I know that my mind can rest just that little bit extra!  But I never assume I am 100% safe either; I realize there is always an element of risk.

Permalink Reply by Bez on August 7, 2013 at 9:05am

Here's an anecdote about being perceived as overly careful about locking:

A girl who used to lock in the same place as I do asked why I bother with 2 ulocks (front wheel and frame to the rack with a longer one and back wheel to the frame with a shorter one) and why I have a cable and lock on my seat even though I don't have a quick release on it any more.  I explained to her that I would prefer not to return from work and find my bike or seat missing.  She said "Where do you think you are, in the city?  We don't get bike thefts from here."  At which point I just smiled and continued locking.  She was using one of those word cables that you can buy at the department stores for like $15.  3 weeks later, her bike got stolen during the day while everyone was at work.

Permalink Reply by Josh L. on August 7, 2013 at 10:17pm

Good anecdotes Dann and slow coach.  Everyone has a different approach to this.

Here's an interesting data point for you.

I lock up in front of the Merchandise Mart (wells) every day.  Probably the coldest day of the year this year, something like Jan 16, I used a cable lock because my ulock was unavailable (bad decision).  My bike got stolen.  

So this is just one anecdote but suggests to me that at least in the Loop area these thieves are always out there. And also that unlike what somebody suggested previously in this threat, a single U lock is a significant deterrent.

Permalink Reply by Josh L. on August 8, 2013 at 5:48am

The stats showed 16% but many of us are skeptical of that number, believing it over reports.

Permalink Reply by h' Zerocats on August 8, 2013 at 12:41pm

I would agree with this. "Informed paranoia" might be a better way to put it.

=Every= nice weekend day the same type of reports come flooding in-- folks that bought a $3-500 bike at a shop near their house, take it out only on nice days to ride to the lakefront or the zoo, and get their cable lock snipped after walking away from it for 10 minutes. Seems like there's a child seat or even a child trailer stolen with it a good percentage of the time.

SlowCoachOnTheRoad said:

I think we simply have to make it clear to people that thieves are out there and they should be mindful of that, but I would bet as well (something not captured by my data) that there are less thefts among us transportation bikers than among the casual, rarer, take the bike out in the summer, types.  We are simply more attached to our bikes so our behaviors are likely to reflect that (I am not saying none of us have had our bikes stolen, only less of us).  This would not be excessive paranoia but what we call "healthy paranoia," the kind that keeps us safe.  

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