Statistics on recent Bike Thefts and my personal recommendations on how to minimize them

I just examined 201 of the July bike thefts on the Chicago Stolen Bike Registry website (http://chicago.stolenbike.org/) because a recent breakdown of the thefts did not discuss the 39% of bikes that were outside of the "not locked" or "poorly locked" categories - I was curious about those too.

I totaled the different categories of theft and came up with these:

Not locked at all or locked to itself only or left unlocked in a garage or porch that got broken into = 38%
Locked with a combination lock and chain = 18%
Padlocked with a chain - 8%
Locked with an integrated lock in a chain = 6%
(the last three use chains that are easily cut and constitute 32%)
Flat Key U-Locks
To a street sign that got lifted or fence that got broken = 19%
Front Wheel only locked - so rest of bike was stolen = 2%
Using older U-Locks = 2%
Bike was disassembled around U-Lock = 1%
U-Lock itself was broken = 6% (presumably using tools like hacksaws, or bent open with force, or chiseled into) (note: 6% is still a small percentage)
From these statistics I conclude:
- Never ever fail to lock your bike and never lock it to itself.
- Never use chains (unless you are parking within eye sight, say outside a coffee bar you are sitting at).
- Don't lock your bike outdoors on the streets for more than a short period of time (minutes) if you are only using 1 lock.
- It is better to keep the bike in your apartment, condo or house than in a car garage that may be broken into unless it is a building garage explicit for bikes in which residents require special building-provided keys, pay for their parking spot, and in which security may provide some monitoring of people entering the building..  The risk that another resident will steal your bike still exists of course, but that remains relatively small (and if you are worried about that, take it into the home and don't pay for the bike garage).

- If locking outside on the streets for hours, use a bike rack instead of a fence, gate or street sign, and use preferably two U-Locks, in particular the hard-core ones like the Kryptonite Fahgettaboudit or others in that family, whatever the brand.  If one is keeping the bike outside for several hours, attach the front wheel and the frame to a bike rack with a solid duty flat-key U-Lock AND an additional smaller but heavy-duty U-Lock to attach the frame again to the bike rack - that will give the thieves more work than they may want to put into the job (remember, they don't like to work as hard as the rest of us).  Small O-Locks may be used for an additional and impressive secondary or tertiary level of security.  The advantage of an O-Lock, while small, is it is built to resist leveraging, sawing, chiseling or hammering - perfect to attach to a back wheel.

This is all common advice but the statistics seem to support it.

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Permalink Reply by Kevin C Dormant on August 6, 2013 at 9:10am

Had to get it from Charlie Short. They are in the process of migrating vids to make them more difficult to find.

Here it is.

J.A.W. said:

Kevin, do you have a link for this?

Kevin C said:

It's been discussed, but never implemented. CDOT actually has a good video on their website.

Permalink Reply by Duppie on August 6, 2013 at 9:33am

You can be nice about it and give people your advice, but in the end it is their responsibility

In our neighborhood meter maids are very aggressive in ticketing for parking violations. Even in metered spots. I more than once pointed a violation to a driver. They always park there anyhow. More than once we come back a little later and the car has a ticket....

**shrugs**

h' 1.0 said:

I have warned people locking to signs that were not secured at all more than once, and each time they've gone ahead and locked to them.

Michael B said:

Walking my dog this morning I happened upon a women locking her new Trek to a stop sign "sucker pole". I told her that a thief could easily pull the sign out of the ground & nab her bike & that a nearby fence might be a better spot to lock up. She told me that it was a four-way stop & nobody would pull the sign out!?!

It might of been helpful for her to get a flyer when she bought her bike or maybe when she goes shopping for a bike to replace the one she is about to lose.

J.A.W. said:

Who wants to do a public service video with me to teach about locking bikes?

We should pass out flyers like "Look Chicago" does.

Maybe work with LBS about passing out such flyers with new bike purchases?

All the flyer will say is:  Prevent bike theft. See website http://so and so dot com

Then we just have videos and links to bike locks. 

Simple!

Wait... Didn't H already have something like this?

Permalink Reply by Marcus Moore on August 6, 2013 at 10:02am



Brian Schuster said:  I feel like if those bikes were stolen (because honestly, who drives around with 15 bikes in the bed of their truck), what could the cops have done considering they were more than likely freshly stolen and would not have been reported.

I've been involved in a few programs, in the past, where we needed to transport numerous bikes around after dark, sometimes in the back of a truck.  And these programs had nothing to do with stealing bikes. 

The "more than likely" scenario is not always the first to come to mind.  (just my two cents) 

Permalink Reply by Josh L. on August 6, 2013 at 10:58am

I wonder how much of this is due to bikes improperly locked...for example to the wheel and not to the frame.  I have a very hard time believing that 16% of bike thefts are due to u locks being cut...people may be bullshitting and claiming they secured it more than they did or locked up poorly.

)(I have no evidence to back up my assertion!:


Kevin C said:

There are 3251 reports on the Chicago Stolen Bike Registry for the period between January 1, 2010 and August 6, 2013. Of those reports, 539 were identified as being locked with a newer u-lock w/flat key. That's 16.58%. For that same period, there were 2, (possibly 3) reported thefts of bikes which were secured with two u-locks. If you lock your bike with a decent u-lock, to a bike rack, and can avoid leaving it locked up overnight, your odds are still pretty good of keeping your bike for many years to come.

I'm at 28, going on 29 years without having a bike stolen in the City of Chicago.

SlowCoachOnTheRoad said:

I hope I made it clear that the thefts from even one U-Lock are very low (I emphasized that 6% is still a very low number).  I was just trying to address ways of reducing even those numbers by adding another lock or two (like your proposal for a U-Lock/chain combo).  But you are right, the chances of not getting a bike stolen simply with the U-Lock, so long as it is to a bike rack and not a pole or fence (where you'd be part of the 19%) is still huge.


Permalink Reply by Michael A on August 6, 2013 at 11:01am

It takes a thief with the proper power tool ( about $75 worth ) less then a minute to cut through a U lock, some better locks force them to cut 2x but that is still less then a couple of minutes. They will hide their mischief with a messenger bag or the likes being pretty brazen. Most people will not say or do anything if someone looks like he belongs there. Prolly dresses like a cyclist and is gone before anyone is the wiser. Or in other words in less time then it took you to read this post.

Permalink Reply by Liz on August 6, 2013 at 11:17am

W talked about this previously but never did much. 

I even came up with a crewd sticker/whatever design. 



J.A.W. said:

Who wants to do a public service video with me to teach about locking bikes?

We should pass out flyers like "Look Chicago" does.

Maybe work with LBS about passing out such flyers with new bike purchases?

All the flyer will say is:  Prevent bike theft. See website http://so and so dot com

Then we just have videos and links to bike locks. 

Simple!

Wait... Didn't H already have something like this?

Permalink Reply by Liz on August 6, 2013 at 11:26am

I've personally known enough people who "properly" lock their bikes, and still have had one stolen to believe that 16% is plausible estimate.  

This statistic could be skewed high for 2 reasons though: 

1. people who lock their bike "properly" may also be more likely to care/understand resources and report the theft to stolenbike.org (remember these are only the self reported thefts, many more thefts never get reported to stolenbike or police) 

2. when filing out the report, you may get some vanity "up selling" of someone not wanting to admit their bike was not robustly locked.  

That said, if you were to go out and survey bikes on the street, the locking trend is in favor of using u-locks.  and as Michael A said, it doesn't take long to cut one with the right tools. 

jolondon30 said:

I wonder how much of this is due to bikes improperly locked...for example to the wheel and not to the frame.  I have a very hard time believing that 16% of bike thefts are due to u locks being cut...people may be bullshitting and claiming they secured it more than they did or locked up poorly.

)(I have no evidence to back up my assertion!:

Permalink Reply by Josh L. on August 6, 2013 at 12:04pm

I'm well aware of the ease of doing it as some of you may remember I had to cut my ulock off in front of the Merchandise Mart at 7 pm in January.  However, I think my basic point holds:

1)  The people doing this are serious bike thieves. Batter power angle drills are not something people walk around with.

2)  There is still risk in doing this, even in a messenger bag. There are sparks from the cutting and there is some noise.  You can't tell the police or somebody walking by  that you just happened to have an angle grinder.

3)  1  and 2 are enough to make this a rare crime. If it was easy and low risk with this economy you would have many ulocks cut every day and that's simply not the case.  


Michael A said:

It takes a thief with the proper power tool ( about $75 worth ) less then a minute to cut through a U lock, some better locks force them to cut 2x but that is still less then a couple of minutes. They will hide their mischief with a messenger bag or the likes being pretty brazen. Most people will not say or do anything if someone looks like he belongs there. Prolly dresses like a cyclist and is gone before anyone is the wiser. Or in other words in less time then it took you to read this post.

Permalink Reply by Michael A on August 6, 2013 at 12:27pm

If you want to not believe that this kind of thief is not out there, that is your choice. The reality is they ARE out there and are getting more and more common. No bike is 100% safe, and even if you double U lock a thief with an allen key can still ruin your day by removing parts like seats, seat posts and I have even heard of them removing the stem bolts and yanking the whole bar/stem/shifters assembly. There are simple ways to defeat locking skewers, and easier yet to cut a simple chain or cable holding down your expensive saddle.

Permalink Reply by Josh L. on August 6, 2013 at 4:50pm

Michael,

The serious thieves are out there but in small numbers.  My point was that a u locked bike - subject to the caveats mentioned in my post - is very unlikely to be stolen.    If there were lots of these serious bike thieves out there bikes would be stolen on a mass scale and they just aren't.   There aren't people walking around the Loop with angle cutters taking bike after bike.  

You are right that theft of smaller items can be a pain.  I switched out my skewers because I didn't want to lose a wheel. The easy offs are just too tempting. As to the other issues you ,mention, I am willing to take the risk as I just don't want to spend my time locking seats, posts, etc. But I understand why people like you feel otherwise.  And if I had a really expensive seat or post I might do the same.

Permalink Reply by Josh L. on August 7, 2013 at 12:22am

Thank you "h".  I would hate to think that chainlink readers take away from this analysis that their u locked bike is constantly under threat of being stole. I have found one of the best uses of my bike - which has replaced my car btw - is to use it to quickly stop at stores, restaurants, what have you.  A good ulock is great for a quick run in and anything more than that I cable the wheel too.  People shouldn't think that they are putting their bike at risk everytime they go out.  U locks are an excellent deterrent.

h' 1.0 said:

We read/review every single report as it comes in, and do work to weed out the reports that erroneously select "U-lock" (generally if you see "other" for a lock type, it means we changed it from "newer U-lock with flat key" after some attempt to decipher what occurred, including contacting the victims for clarification.) But we probably do miss some now and then.

I think we get into the territory that someone alluded to early in the thread, of our sample being self-selecting and potentially being better informed/better connected than the general bike-losing population, and thus more likely to have known to use a U-lock, and/or victims of theft of more valuable bikes being more likely to report them, and for various reasons having been more likely to have used a U-lock. Or a variety of other factors that may prevent you from having stats that are representative of the general population.

I definitely agree that a much smaller percentage of bikes that are stolen each day in Chicago (than 16%) are stolen by defeating a U-lock.... my guess would be 3-5%.   I have used two U-locks for at least 5 years now, but I strongly feel that the vast majority of thefts in Chicago would not have occurred if the bike had been locked to something relatively unbreakable with one decent U-lock.  Apologies if the statistics being posted here suggest otherwise.

jolondon30 said:

I wonder how much of this is due to bikes improperly locked...for example to the wheel and not to the frame.  I have a very hard time believing that 16% of bike thefts are due to u locks being cut...people may be bullshitting and claiming they secured it more than they did or locked up poorly.

)(I have no evidence to back up my assertion!:


Kevin C said:

There are 3251 reports on the Chicago Stolen Bike Registry for the period between January 1, 2010 and August 6, 2013. Of those reports, 539 were identified as being locked with a newer u-lock w/flat key. That's 16.58%. For that same period, there were 2, (possibly 3) reported thefts of bikes which were secured with two u-locks. If you lock your bike with a decent u-lock, to a bike rack, and can avoid leaving it locked up overnight, your odds are still pretty good of keeping your bike for many years to come.

I'm at 28, going on 29 years without having a bike stolen in the City of Chicago.

SlowCoachOnTheRoad said:

I hope I made it clear that the thefts from even one U-Lock are very low (I emphasized that 6% is still a very low number).  I was just trying to address ways of reducing even those numbers by adding another lock or two (like your proposal for a U-Lock/chain combo).  But you are right, the chances of not getting a bike stolen simply with the U-Lock, so long as it is to a bike rack and not a pole or fence (where you'd be part of the 19%) is still huge.


Permalink Reply by SlowCoachOnTheRoad on August 7, 2013 at 1:50am

I think we simply have to make it clear to people that thieves are out there and they should be mindful of that, but I would bet as well (something not captured by my data) that there are less thefts among us transportation bikers than among the casual, rarer, take the bike out in the summer, types.  We are simply more attached to our bikes so our behaviors are likely to reflect that (I am not saying none of us have had our bikes stolen, only less of us).  This would not be excessive paranoia but what we call "healthy paranoia," the kind that keeps us safe.  We must take care and with the right precautions greatly minimize thefts.  I personally carry a large U-Lock and a medium one on my bike, and even a cable that can be easily cut.  If I am stopping outside a movie theater for example, or even taking a half hour trip to a Target, I will use the big U-Lock for the frame and front wheel, and then the medium U-Lock for another attachment of frame to rack.  I may even wind my cable through my SpongyWonder seat to the bike frame since I don't want that nabbed either (and it is easy to loosen a bike seat - I know some of you even take that seat with you).  Each of these would be possible to break into by a professional thief, but I am assuming with all that protection the deterrence is greater.  So while this may seem a bit excessive to the average biker chaining his or her bike next to mine, I know that my mind can rest just that little bit extra!  But I never assume I am 100% safe either; I realize there is always an element of risk.

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